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hhctony

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I'm not smart enough to really do much more than is out there for you guys to see for yourself, but I thought we could make a thread that hhcdimes could pin to talk about teams and resume. I think it would be best to do it much like the Bubble Watch that ESPN's Eamon Brennan does. I think it's fantastic. Another useful tool that I like is the BPI and a link to their stuff is here. In addition, I think you can do some analysis of the NIT here as well if you like.

 

That said, I see this for the way 2015 will shake out from a general perspective. I think you have 11 multiple bid leagues this year with 32 conference receiving automatic bids and 36 at-large bids for the tournament. So, in theory, you have 47 spots up for grabs at this time. I don't give away the locks as easily as the Bubble Watch. I'll start a list below.

 

As for Nebraska, the Incarnate Word loss is a killer and with our current RPI/BPI, I think 20-wins will be the minimum, but you never know. That means seven wins and a minimum of nine games left. So, you do the math. It will be a tough row. I think 17 would get us to the NIT and 18 would get us there comfortably. Quite frankly, playing games is still important.

 

I'll try to update the LOCK list as much as I can. My locks are teams that can lose the rest of their games and still make the tournament. Also, I'll try to have a "next up" list of about the next ten teams prepared as well.

 

LOCK LIST (23): Kentucky (SEC), Virginia (ACC), Gonzaga (WCC), Wisconsin (Big Ten), Arizona (Pac-12), Villanova (Big East), Duke (ACC), Kansas (Big 12), Notre Dame (ACC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Louisville (ACC), Utah (Pac-12), Maryland (Big Ten), North Carolina (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big 12), Wichita State (MVC), Butler (Big East), Iowa State (Big 12), Michigan State (Big Ten), Baylor (Big 12), West Virginia (Big 12), Arkansas (SEC).

 

NEXT UP: Lots of junk in the middle of the bracket. Atlantic 10 is a mess. Mountain West is a mess. Both leagues could take up 6-8 spots and a probalby deserving. Same with the American. Could see a ton of those teams here. Also curious to see how the committee values Murray State and Stephen F Austin.

 

ONE BID LEAGUES (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC.

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Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

 

I'd say the next team to get in will be the winner of the Duke, Notre Dame game at Cameron on Saturday. In addition, I'd advance Villanova into the field with a win over Georgetown this weekend.

 

My Big Ten S-Curve (for tournament merit)

Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa, Purdue (all teams I'd have in)

Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota (outside still alive)

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Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

 

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

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Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

 

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

 

 

If they just win out at home and go 10-8 there best wins would be all at home (Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State). You are a correct, some kind of win against a good team would help. That record won't do. Remember, Nebraska landed a road pelt with Sparty last year and a home win with a top-8 national seed Wisconsin. Purdue would have non of that. This could be a team that is passable. Winning there would be nice (if we first win at Penn State and somehow knock off Wisconsin). I know that's not anything to difficult to ask for.

 

In addition, I'm curious what an 18-12 (11-7) Michigan team looks like. It would be loaded with wins as well, but nothing great if things go as I think.  

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Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

 

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

 

See, I do think it will cut it and I'll tell you why.  If you watch College Bball on a nightly basis, SO many teams are beating each other.  Basketball has about 7 really dominant teams this year, and then after that on any given night anybody is beating anybody.  I think this is a year where we see a lot of teams dancing with 10-13 losses on their schedule (depending on who the losses are too).  As pointed out, that Incarnate game is haunting to this team!  That game still sickens me.

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See, I do think it will cut it and I'll tell you why.  If you watch College Bball on a nightly basis, SO many teams are beating each other.  Basketball has about 7 really dominant teams this year, and then after that on any given night anybody is beating anybody.  I think this is a year where we see a lot of teams dancing with 10-13 losses on their schedule (depending on who the losses are too).  As pointed out, that Incarnate game is haunting to this team!  That game still sickens me.

 

A very real possibility. I agree. The last about 10 teams is always very interesting to me.

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See, I do think it will cut it and I'll tell you why.  If you watch College Bball on a nightly basis, SO many teams are beating each other.  Basketball has about 7 really dominant teams this year, and then after that on any given night anybody is beating anybody.  I think this is a year where we see a lot of teams dancing with 10-13 losses on their schedule (depending on who the losses are too).  As pointed out, that Incarnate game is haunting to this team!  That game still sickens me.

 

College basketball is always different but always the same.

 

At 19-12 Purdue is a fringe team. They have home losses to Gardner Webb and North Florida to go with no impressive road wins. They do have some good home wins.  There will be 19-12 team(s) that make the tourney...I just think they'll be more impressive than Purdue. I think Illinois at 19-12 (9-9) would get the nod over Purdue, for example. They play each other on the last weekend of conference play in what could very well be a tourney play-in game.

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Purdue has moved in the field today on ESPN.com giving the Big Ten seven teams in the most recent projection. The Boilers could be the 2015 Nebraska; a team that is not great but with a favorable schedule. The teams they play twice are MINN, ILL, IND, tOSU, RUTGERS. In addition road games (and wins) against Northwestern and Penn State. They are 15-8 currently to our 13-9. Not much difference between these two teams, to be honest.

 

Good eye. They have some bad home losses and their two road wins aren't impressive. They need a roadie vs Ohio St, MSU, or Indiana in the worst way. I don't think 19-12 (11-7 in conference) is going to cut it for this team.

 

 

Right now...according to Palm who updated his bubble watch we are a "bad loss."  But win the next two and that will change. 

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Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

 

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

 

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble.  People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night.  I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me.  How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left?  Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

 

Its why we call it March Madness!  I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

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Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

 

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

 

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble.  People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night.  I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me.  How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left?  Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

 

Its why we call it March Madness!  I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

 

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out.  If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.  

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Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

 

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

 

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble.  People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night.  I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me.  How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left?  Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

 

Its why we call it March Madness!  I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

 

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out.  If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.  

 

 

At this point, that's correct. I'd add Penn State there are as well. Those three teams are the only ones done in the Big Ten right now. See above.

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Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

 

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

 

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble.  People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night.  I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me.  How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left?  Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

 

Its why we call it March Madness!  I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

 

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out.  If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.  

 

 

At this point, that's correct. I'd add Penn State there are as well. Those three teams are the only ones done in the Big Ten right now. See above.

 

 

Nebraska needs to make sure PSU is 'out' after this weekend... ;)

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Even tonight you see the madness of College bball! (Which I love)

 

Michigan who some have as a "bubble" team lose at home to Iowa.

LSU drops a BAD home loss to Auburn

 

Its going to be so interesting this year watching the bubble.  People tweet almost nightly "that teams done" Or "they are now on the bubble" And it changes every night.  I know these guys get paid to get clicks on their sites, but it always humors me.  How the hell do you know who is on and off the bubble with 10 games left?  Sure you may lose 2-3 games, but who's to say other bubble teams aren't every night as well?

 

Its why we call it March Madness!  I just hope NU takes it 1 game at a time and see what happens.

 

Thats just it... There are just so many teams still on the "bubble" that you can't say they are in or they are out.  If we are really talking about the WHOLE BUBBLE (Teams still in contention for an at large bid) then the Big 10 would probably have all but Northwestern and Rutgers.  

 

 

Let's define some things

 

Lock - Team that will make the tournament given games already played. An assumption is made that a historic collapse would be needed for the team to not make the tourney.

Out - Team that probably won't make the tourney given games already played. An assumption is made that anywhere from an unexpected to a historic run or conference tourney championship would be needed to make the tourney.

Bubble Team - Team's current record plus projected finish places team in or almost in the tournament 

The Bubble - The list of teams projected to finish between Lock and Out Status. As the number of games remaining decreases and the error of projection decreases, the bubble shrinks.

 

You can further define the teams that are currently out with 'Bubble Team Potential' but trying to cherry pick teams and project the unexpected makes an already hypothetical exercise even less meaningful.

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Big Ten now projected to have 8 teams 'in' by USA Today. Interesting to see Minnesota at 5-8 in conference on the bubble w/ Purdue & Illinois among "Last Four In" at this point...

 

Minnesota probably gets 18 wins np with wins over NW and Penn St at home With their overall body of work all they need to do is win 2 out of the other 3 vs Wisconsin (Home and Away) and Michigan St (Away).  

 

They seem like a team poised to defend their NIT title.

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