KenPom 2014-2015 KenPom Rankings Thread

[Norm Peterson]

So here's an illustration of one of the issues I have with Kenpom.

 

UMKC is #201 in the current Kenpom.  They have a 1-1 record with an 8 pt win against the #110 team and a 10 pt loss against the #33 team.

 

Missouri is #110 in the current Kenpom.  They also have a 1-1 record but with an 8 pt loss at home to the #201 team and a 15 pt win over the #170 team.

 

UMKC owns the same record as Mizzou but they've played teams with an average Kenpom ranking of 71.5 whereas Mizzou has played teams with an average ranking of 185.5.

 

UMKC's only loss is to a team in the top 50; Mizzou's loss is to a team outside the top 200.

 

WTF?

[hhcmatt]

So here's an illustration of one of the issues I have with Kenpom.

 

UMKC is #201 in the current Kenpom.  They have a 1-1 record with an 8 pt win against the #110 team and a 10 pt loss against the #33 team.

 

Missouri is #110 in the current Kenpom.  They also have a 1-1 record but with an 8 pt loss at home to the #201 team and a 15 pt win over the #170 team.

 

UMKC owns the same record as Mizzou but they've played teams with an average Kenpom ranking of 71.5 whereas Mizzou has played teams with an average ranking of 185.5.

 

UMKC's only loss is to a team in the top 50; Mizzou's loss is to a team outside the top 200.

 

WTF?

 

 

The system is built upon an initial bias that gets corrected if necessary over time.

[49r]

Playing +300 teams isn't helping us any in the rankings early on, a win Saturday will be the best way for us to try to get into the 20's.

 

Not a lot of movement in the past couple days, Michigan and Ohio State keep jockeying for position, Nebraska gets passed up by Minnesota, Florida State drops a bit after their loss last night and Hawaii...oh my, Hawaii!!!  If things keep going they way they have been, Hawaii will be another +300 team on our schedule.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-19-14.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

5. Wisconsin

13. Michigan

14. Ohio State

19. Michigan State

24. Iowa

26. Maryland

28. Indiana

32. Minnesota

33. Nebraska

37. Purdue

39. Illinois

49. Penn State

75. Northwestern

126. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (2-0):

312. Northern Kentucky - W

344. Central Arkansas - W

113. @Rhode Island

229. Omaha

315. Tennessee-Martin

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

51. @Florida State

 

53. Creighton

244. Incarnate Word

44. Cincinnati

 

---Diamond Head Classic---

235. Hawaii

7. Wichita State, 203. LMU

42. GWU, 46. Colorado, 132. Ohio, 182. DePaul

[royalfan]

So here's an illustration of one of the issues I have with Kenpom.

 

UMKC is #201 in the current Kenpom.  They have a 1-1 record with an 8 pt win against the #110 team and a 10 pt loss against the #33 team.

 

Missouri is #110 in the current Kenpom.  They also have a 1-1 record but with an 8 pt loss at home to the #201 team and a 15 pt win over the #170 team.

 

UMKC owns the same record as Mizzou but they've played teams with an average Kenpom ranking of 71.5 whereas Mizzou has played teams with an average ranking of 185.5.

 

UMKC's only loss is to a team in the top 50; Mizzou's loss is to a team outside the top 200.

 

WTF?

Yeah it is what Dimes said.  It is designed to give what he believes is a more accurate representation in the early going until the data has enough to sort itself out.  It is probably personal preference, but I like this more than something like the RPI which is strictly numbers driven early on.  I think he uses last year a significant amount as the starting point.   Obviously it isn't perfect, but the only thing that really can be trusted at all at this point would be Vegas power rankings and they are not terribly accurate either at this point and they commonly get destroyed by sharps this time of year. 

[Norm Peterson]

Did I miscount or are there truly 12 B1G teams in Kenporn's top 50?

 

Wow.

[49r]

Interestingly enough, Creighton remains at #53, even after last night's upset of Oklahoma.

[trickey]

 

Oooh!  Is that the large pizza with extra sausage that I ordered?

 

 

 

 

A 3:32 minute clip and it is all music ...What would Mr. Hardwick do?  Limp?

[49r]

 

 

Oooh!  Is that the large pizza with extra sausage that I ordered?

 

 

 

 

A 3:32 minute clip and it is all music ...What would Mr. Hardwick do?  Limp?

 

 

Dude, I'm not trying to get myself banned here!  

[49r]

Wow, this thread took an...interesting turn.  Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled programming.  Rhode Island didn't quite make it into the top 100 today, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them there soon.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-23-14.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

4. Wisconsin

13. Michigan State

17. Ohio State

19. Michigan

25. Maryland

29. Iowa

33. Minnesota

34. Indiana

38. Purdue

39. Illinois

41. Nebraska

73. Penn State

100. Northwestern

124. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (2-1):

308. Northern Kentucky - W

344. Central Arkansas - W

102. @Rhode Island - L

218. Omaha

315. Tennessee-Martin

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

75. @Florida State

 

57. Creighton

208. Incarnate Word

51. Cincinnati

 

---Diamond Head Classic---

213. Hawaii

7. Wichita State, 225. LMU

54. GWU, 72. Colorado, 156. Ohio, 175. DePaul

[49r]

Traveling today so I'm a little late with the KenPom update, but here it is nonetheless.  Looks likely that Creighton will be ranked above us by the time we play them - which is good - because so far virtually all of our other non-con opponents are trending downwards as of now.  Our non-con SOS is horrendous and may not improve all that much by the time conference play rolls around.  We really need to get Wichita State in that second game at the Diamond Head tourney.

 

So, here we are.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-26-14.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

4. Wisconsin

13. Michigan State

14. Ohio State

17. Michigan

21. Maryland

32. Iowa

37. Illinois

38. Purdue

39. Minnesota

43. Nebraska

52. Indiana

85. Penn State

98. Northwestern

178. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (3-1):

307. Northern Kentucky - W

343. Central Arkansas - W

103. @Rhode Island - L

217. Omaha - W

299. Tennessee-Martin

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

90. @Florida State

 

44. Creighton

204. Incarnate Word

62. Cincinnati

 

---Diamond Head Classic---

208. Hawaii

8. Wichita State, 223. LMU

58. GWU, 70. Colorado, 161. Ohio, 172. DePaul

[HuskerFever]

KenPom rankings as of 11-26-14.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

4. Wisconsin

13. Michigan State

14. Ohio State

17. Michigan

21. Maryland

32. Iowa

37. Illinois

38. Purdue

43. Nebraska

52. Indiana

85. Penn State

98. Northwestern

178. Rutgers

 

Any reason why Minnesota isn't on this list?

[49r]

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-26-14.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

4. Wisconsin

13. Michigan State

14. Ohio State

17. Michigan

21. Maryland

32. Iowa

37. Illinois

38. Purdue

43. Nebraska

52. Indiana

85. Penn State

98. Northwestern

178. Rutgers

 

Any reason why Minnesota isn't on this list?

 

 

Yes, I screwed up.  I'll go fix that...  

[HuskerFever]

Thanks, 49r!

 

 

And Rutgers......

 

[49r]

Well, the cupcake portion of our non-con is now coming to a close, the competition is about to be a lot tougher.  Notice that Rhode Island is now firmly in the top 100 at #87, and Florida State is at #90 so it appears we can expect a real similar game against FSU.  Fortunately the FSU fans are probably still firmly in football mode so maybe they won't be as rowdy as the URI fans were.  I think 4-3 from the next seven is not an unreasonable expectation.

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-29-14.

===========================

 

B1G (0-0):

4. Wisconsin

13. Michigan State

16. Ohio State

19. Michigan

23. Illinois

26. Maryland

28. Iowa

40. Purdue

41. Minnesota

49. Nebraska

62. Indiana

83. Penn State

117. Northwestern

163. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (4-1):

312. Northern Kentucky - W

344. Central Arkansas - W

87. @Rhode Island - L

210. Omaha - W

290. Tennessee-Martin - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

90. @Florida State

 

53. Creighton

197. Incarnate Word

46. Cincinnati

 

---Diamond Head Classic---

196. Hawaii

10. Wichita State, 230. LMU

60. GWU, 74. Colorado, 158. Ohio, 216. DePaul

[Norm Peterson]

 

Well, the cupcake portion of our non-con is now coming to a close, the competition is about to be a lot tougher.  Notice that Rhode Island is now firmly in the top 100 at #87, and Florida State is at #90 so it appears we can expect a real similar game against FSU.  Fortunately the FSU fans are probably still firmly in football mode so maybe they won't be as rowdy as the URI fans were.  I think 4-3 from the next seven is not an unreasonable expectation.

My expectations at this point would be higher than that.  Four and 3 isn't good for a team that has top 25 aspirations. 

 

We are at least even money to beat FSU on the road.  As you say, they'd be similar to Rhode Island, whom we took to overtime.

 

The next three of those games are at home.  We must win all of them.  And we should win all of them.

 

With all the turmoil in Hawaii, we should just about be a lock to win our first-round match-up against them.

 

Even if we drop a game against WSU, we still win our third-round match-up.  I think, either way, we win the third-round.  Bare minimum expectation is 2-1 in Hawaii.

 

So 3 + 2 = 5 wins and a toss-up against FSU could make that 6 wins in the next 7.  That's my expectation.  If we don't win all 7.

[ajb5856]

Well, the cupcake portion of our non-con is now coming to a close, the competition is about to be a lot tougher. Notice that Rhode Island is now firmly in the top 100 at #87, and Florida State is at #90 so it appears we can expect a real similar game against FSU. Fortunately the FSU fans are probably still firmly in football mode so maybe they won't be as rowdy as the URI fans were. I think 4-3 from the next seven is not an unreasonable expectation.

My expectations at this point would be higher than that. Four and 3 isn't good for a team that has top 25 aspirations.

We are at least even money to beat FSU on the road. As you say, they'd be similar to Rhode Island, whom we took to overtime.

The next three of those games are at home. We must win all of them. And we should win all of them.

With all the turmoil in Hawaii, we should just about be a lock to win our first-round match-up against them.

Even if we drop a game against WSU, we still win our third-round match-up. I think, either way, we win the third-round. Bare minimum expectation is 2-1 in Hawaii.

So 3 + 2 = 5 wins and a toss-up against FSU could make that 6 wins in the next 7. That's my expectation. If we don't win all 7.

Agree here. 4-3 in the next 7 needs to be considered the "stay afloat line" and not the expectation. I expect to do better than 4-3. Considering we were 15-1 at home last year you have to expect to win at home in the non-conference. Not saying you will win all of those but that has to be the expectation. Need to go 3-0 against Creighton, Incarnate Word, and Cincinnati. A tall order, but that's the way it has to be. 3-0. That leaves 4 games in the 7 game stretch. The road game at FSU and the road (Hawaii) plus 2 neutral games in Hawaii. The expectation for me in Hawaii, considering we played poorly in the preseason tournament last year and now have experience, is 2-1. This allows for a loss at FSU (inexcusable, FSU playing poorly, learned our lesson at URI) to go

5-2 over the next 7. That's my minimum expectation although there's no reason we shouldn't expect to go 6-1. Again, not saying we will or deserve to or can coast to 6 wins. It will

be difficult, but that has to be the expectation this year.

[49r]

 

 

Well, the cupcake portion of our non-con is now coming to a close, the competition is about to be a lot tougher.  Notice that Rhode Island is now firmly in the top 100 at #87, and Florida State is at #90 so it appears we can expect a real similar game against FSU.  Fortunately the FSU fans are probably still firmly in football mode so maybe they won't be as rowdy as the URI fans were.  I think 4-3 from the next seven is not an unreasonable expectation.

My expectations at this point would be higher than that.  Four and 3 isn't good for a team that has top 25 aspirations. 

 

We are at least even money to beat FSU on the road.  As you say, they'd be similar to Rhode Island, whom we took to overtime.

 

The next three of those games are at home.  We must win all of them.  And we should win all of them.

 

With all the turmoil in Hawaii, we should just about be a lock to win our first-round match-up against them.

 

Even if we drop a game against WSU, we still win our third-round match-up.  I think, either way, we win the third-round.  Bare minimum expectation is 2-1 in Hawaii.

 

So 3 + 2 = 5 wins and a toss-up against FSU could make that 6 wins in the next 7.  That's my expectation.  If we don't win all 7.

 

 

While I appreciate your optimism, I just don't see us as a top-25 caliber team right now.  Hawaii is going to be a guaranteed 1 loss trip with 2 losses being a toss up.  FSU is talented and well coached and playing at home and you can't just go in there and expect to win, so I would say better than average shot of walking away from there with the L.  Add in the fact that Creighton is playing way above their heads right now and it's a rivalry game I wouldn't be so sure they couldn't sneak out of PBA with a win.  Cincinnati is probably less likely to get the W against us, but like I said before, we aren't playing anywhere near top-25 level ball right now which is why I say we should expect 4-3 and hope for better.

[49r]

Just to reinforce my point, RPI Forecast has us as a slight favorite in 4 of our next 5 games, but the margins are pretty slim.  

 

12-1 Florida St. (156.3)                55%     1.4

12-7 Creighton (87.2)                   61%     3.4

12-10 Incarnate Word (202.2)      90%    15.6

12-13 Cincinnati (57.6)                64%      4.3

12-22 Hawaii (186.6)                   66%      4.9

[ajb5856]

Just to reinforce my point, RPI Forecast has us as a slight favorite in 4 of our next 5 games, but the margins are pretty slim.

12-1 Florida St. (156.3) 55% 1.4

12-7 Creighton (87.2) 61% 3.4

12-10 Incarnate Word (202.2) 90% 15.6

12-13 Cincinnati (57.6) 64% 4.3

12-22 Hawaii (186.6) 66% 4.9

The margins here are slim. However, you could use the fact that we are favored to say we should win at least 4 of these 5??? I know it's hard to imagine or 'expect', if you will, but is it unreasonable to expect to win 80% of the games that you are FAVORED to win? We are favored after all.

[ajb5856]

I understand there's a little trouble with expectations this year and deciding what exactly us fans are supposed to be okay with versus what we expect. It's a little hard to go from last year going into the season where expectations were basically zero to making the tournament and then being ranked in the preseason top 25 this year. The hype does seem like it was a little much a little too soon, but that's not to say that we can't or won't come back to legitimately place ourselves in the top 25 and have the type of season some of the hype was telling us we'd have. We are after a all just 5 games in and have won 4 of those games.

[49r]

those 4 wins came against +200 KenPom teams, two of those are +300 (and one of the +200's is dangerously close to being in the 300's).  A top 25 team should be beating those teams by 30 or 40 or more points, not 10 or 20.  That's why I am taking a much more cautious approach to the upcoming games.

[ajb5856]

I hear ya. We certainly aren't clicking on all cylinders just yet. Each game we've had a different facet where we've struggled and we've yet to put it all together for a full game. While it's certainly reasonable to temper expectations, I think it's a little too soon to actually worry about anything. We have played those higher RPI teams so far. We've won by 19, 26, 13, and 11. And then had the clunker loss. Id actually argue that we played our best moments in the 13 and 11 point wins. I agree that a truly dominate team should win those by 25+ but not necessarily just a top 25 team. If you look at top 25 scores, those top 25 teams aren't always polishing those teams off. It's hard to judge progress on margin alone. We played our best so far in the 13 and 11 point wins and I would argue that those games weren't/didn't have to be as close as they seemed. We left 10 points off the board early in the UNO game on FTs alone or that game isn't nearly as close. I thought we controlled the game well once we did get the lead even though the slow start is still unacceptable. Last nights game, we really extended the lead and then, in my eyes, UTM started making contested 3s like crazy. There's something to be said about killer instinct but I don't think we can strictly look at margin of these beginning games to predict future games.

[49r]

With their win today, UNO moves from #210 to #182, so that win is starting to look a little less shabby.

[AuroranHusker]

With their win today, UNO moves from #210 to #182, so that win is starting to look a little less shabby.

 

Omaha's a pretty decent team, having beaten Nevada and Marquette (in Milwaukee) already. I'll predict the Mavs will be top 4-5 in the 10-team Summit League in their final yr of transition to Div. 1. Probably get another C.I.T. invite & possibly 20 wins this time.

[49r]

Just to reinforce my point, RPI Forecast has us as a slight favorite in 4 of our next 5 games, but the margins are pretty slim.  

 

12-1 Florida St. (156.3)                55%     1.4

12-7 Creighton (87.2)                   61%     3.4

12-10 Incarnate Word (202.2)      90%    15.6

12-13 Cincinnati (57.6)                64%      4.3

12-22 Hawaii (186.6)                   66%      4.9

 

So, we got the most difficult W on that list, now it's time to get the second most difficult one.